The American housing market has reached a milestone unseen in over a decade. According to data from Redfin, there were nearly 630,000 more sellers than buyers in February, representing a 46 percent surplus of sellers, the widest gap in records dating back to 2013. On paper, it is the most favorable environment for buyers in years. In practice, many Americans remain on the sidelines.
The shift marks a striking reversal from the pandemic era, when rock-bottom mortgage rates unleashed a frenzy of demand that left buyers scrambling and sellers firmly in control. In November 2021, buyers actually outnumbered sellers by 36 percent nationwide. Since then, rising borrowing costs and a gradual loosening of the so-called “mortgage rate lock-in effect” which had kept many homeowners reluctant to sell, have steadily replenished a market starved of inventory.
A Buyer’s Market in Name, but Not Always in Feel
The numbers tell a clear story: the U.S. has technically been a buyer’s market since May 2024, defined by Redfin as a market where sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10 percent. The practical benefits of that status, however, have been uneven. The median sale price of a U.S. home stood at $429,226 in February, still up 0.9 percent year-over-year, a sharp slowdown from the 6 percent annual gains recorded in February 2024, but still a climb.
Mortgage rates have added to the friction. After briefly dipping below 6 percent in late February for the first time in years, rates reversed course following the outbreak of conflict in Iran. According to Freddie Mac, the national average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 6.22 percent as of the week ending March 19. The combination of lingering price growth, elevated rates, and broader economic uncertainty has made buyers cautious, the number of active homebuyers fell 2.4 percent month-over-month in February, to an estimated 1.36 million.
Regional Divergence Tells a More Complex Story
Beneath the national headline figures lies a patchwork of very different local realities. Cities such as Miami, Nashville, and Austin are firmly buyer’s markets, with sellers outnumbering buyers by 163, 120, and 112 percent respectively, a product of booming new construction and waning demand in the Sun Belt. Buyers in those markets are increasingly able to negotiate discounts and extract concessions from sellers.
Elsewhere, the picture is reversed. Newark, New Jersey, Milwaukee, and Nassau County, New York, remain seller’s markets, where buyers still outnumber sellers and competition persists. Redfin Premier agent Justin Gomez, based in Omaha, offered a grounded view of the broader trend: inventory has grown significantly over the past two years, and in his market, where median prices sit in the low $300,000s, the atmosphere has shifted from frenzied bidding wars to something closer to normalcy.
Redfin’s principal economist Sheharyar Bokhari remains cautiously optimistic, noting that income growth is expected to outpace home price gains through the year. The traditional spring buying season, however, may arrive later than usual, with analysts warning that the conflict in the Middle East has introduced a delay into what was expected to be a more active market.
