The 2026 tax filing season opened this week, allowing taxpayers to submit their 2025 returns through April 15. The debate over refund sizes comes as new provisions from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act begin to take effect, reshaping deductions and credits for workers, seniors, and families.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote that refunds are “substantially greater than ever before” because of the legislation passed in July 2025. He added that in some cases estimates suggest “over 20% will be returned to the Taxpayer,” while highlighting measures such as no tax on tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits for seniors, as well as interest deductions on car loans.
Early Filing Data Shows Higher Average Refunds than a Year Ago
According to the IRS, the average tax refund as of February 6 stands at $2,290. At the same point in 2025, the average refund was $2,065, marking an increase of 10.9 percent. More than 22 million returns have been received so far this season, with millions still to be processed.
Yet complete statistics from 2025 show that the average refund for that year was $3,167, higher than the early 2026 figure. The IRS has cautioned against drawing firm conclusions from early-season data. According to the agency, current refund numbers do not yet include millions of refunds tied to the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC).
The IRS said that refund figures expected to be released on February 27, covering returns processed through February 20, are likely to be higher as those credits are included. The agency also noted that large percentage shifts are common at the beginning of each filing season, as many taxpayers are still waiting for key documents at the end of January. Historically, those numbers tend to even out as more returns are filed.
New Deductions and Credits Reshape the 2025 Tax Year
The refund discussion is closely linked to several tax changes enacted under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. According to Trump administration officials, the legislation introduced new deductions for tipped workers, overtime earners, and older Americans.
Service workers earning under $150,000 a year can now deduct up to $25,000 in eligible tip income. Employees who receive overtime pay may deduct compensation from up to 250 hours of overtime, depending on income level.
Taxpayers aged 65 and over can claim a new $6,000 bonus deduction. The full amount is available to single filers with modified adjusted gross income below $75,000 and married couples below $150,000.
The Child Tax Credit has also been expanded. Beginning in 2025, the credit rises to $2,200 per qualifying child and will increase annually to keep pace with inflation. Under the updated rules, claimants must have a work-eligible Social Security number to qualify. The credit remains partially refundable, meaning families can receive a portion of the benefit even if they owe little or no federal income tax.
As filing season continues, the scale of refunds will become clearer. For now, early data suggests higher averages compared with this time last year, while broader comparisons still reflect the stronger full-year totals recorded in 2025.
