Recent changes in mortgage rates have caught the attention of both buyers and industry experts amid signs of growth in the property market.
Mortgage Rates Change Amid Growth in the Property Market
By Chourouk Derkaoui
Published on 12 December 2024 12:30
Recent observations by surveyors indicate that house price growth is gaining momentum, although an increase in mortgage rates may soon temper housing market activity.
According to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS), a positive net balance of 25% of property professionals reported an increase in house prices for November, up from 16% in October. This marks the third consecutive month of rising prices, suggesting a notable shift in the market.
Experts Predict Continued Growth Despite Rising Mortgage Rates
Industry experts express optimism that house prices will continue to rise over the next three months and throughout the coming year. RICS noted an uptick in inquiries from potential buyers and a rise in listings in November, while the volume of sales remained steady.
A net balance of 19% of professionals anticipates an acceleration in sales over the next quarter. However, market appraisals in November echoed figures from the previous year, prompting discussions of a potential slowdown in new listings as we approach 2025.
Tenant Demand Declines: First Drop Since 2020
On a different note, tenant demand saw a slight decline in November, marking the first decrease since 2020. RICS reported a net difference of just 1% of professionals observing this downturn, which may be attributed to seasonal factors.
Landlord instructions continued to dwindle, with a net balance of 13% reporting a decrease, further complicating the rental market's supply-demand dynamic.
RICS Economist Warns of Economic Headwinds
Tarrant Parsons, a senior economist at RICS, commented on the prevailing market conditions: “While the survey results indicate a steady improvement in buyer demand, the broader macroeconomic environment could introduce additional challenges. The recent surge in mortgage interest rates may soon hinder market recovery, as reflected in the more tempered sales expectations this month.”
He further noted that declining consumer and business confidence could influence housing market dynamics in the near future.
Optimism for 2025: Rightmove Forecasts Busy Year Ahead
Conversely, Tim Bannister, Rightmove’s property expert, remains optimistic, forecasting a bustling 2025 with around 1.15 million transactions expected. He anticipates an especially active first quarter, with ongoing effects from rising stamp duties likely influencing negotiation strategies throughout the year.
Cautious Outlook from Knight Frank: Inflation and Rates Impact Predictions
Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at Knight Frank, advised a more cautious outlook: “We have revised our UK house price forecasts downward to account for the likelihood that inflation and mortgage rates will remain elevated for an extended period. Sustainable growth in house prices and transaction activity will depend on a definitive positive shift in the economy.”
In summary, while there are signs of positive momentum in the housing market, the interplay of rising mortgage rates and economic uncertainties calls for a measured approach to future expectations.