The ideal 2040 scenario would see a 30% reduction in demand for primary energy

The report on energy transition in the Mediterranean in 2040, published by the MEDENER and the OME with support from the ADEME, highlights the gap between the inertia and transition scenarios. A combination of energy efficiency and energy transition would increase the share of renewable energies in the region's energy mix to 27%.

By 2040, the Mediterranean region will need to have overcome challenges in three key areas: demographics, with at least a doubling of its urban population; energy, with a 60% rise in demand and climate change, with greenhouse gas emissions increasing by around 50%.

Energy efficiency is an absolute prerequisite to developing renewable energies within a virtuous scenario. In its report "Energy Transition in the Mediterranean – 2040 Scenario" published in May, 2016, the Mediterranean Association of National Agencies for Energy Conservation (MEDENER), Mediterranean Observatory for Energy (OME) and the French Environment and Energy Management Agency (ADEME) presented two scenarios: the inertia or "do-nothing" scenario and the energy transition scenario. The latter is based on the premise that all the official programmes and schemes announced by governments relating to sustainable energy policy development, in the form of plans or projects, are indeed put in place.

The gulf between the two scenarios ( fig.1 and 2 ) is huge, with a 50% rise in demand for primary energy in the former and only 7% in the latter. By 2040, the ideal scenario would translate into a 30% reduction in primary energy demand and a 23% drop in final consumption. It also forecasts a 27% increase in the share of renewable energies in the region's energy mix, making renewables the main energy source for electricity production.
This scenario also obviates additional infrastructure to produce 200 GW from fossil fuels and provides for a 38% reduction in CO2 emissions.

The ideal 2040 scenario would see a 30% reduction in demand for primary energy

Construction – A key factor in accelerating energy transition in the Mediterranean

The ideal 2040 scenario would see a 30% reduction in demand for primary energy
The disparities between north and south remain significant however. Thus, in 2040, the share of renewable energies in the energy mix in the Northern and Southern Mediterranean would reach 23% and 7% respectively in the "do-nothing" scenario and 39% and 16% in the energy transition scenario.

In the energy transition scenario, renewable energy development will need to go hand-in-hand with energy efficiency (fig.3). In the Mediterranean today, the construction industry represents 35% of final consumption (24% for residential construction alone) and thus a vital lever. According to projections, and with a forecast need for 50 million additional buildings in the Mediterranean between now and 2040, there is a potential energy saving of 40% in new buildings.
Electricity saving is a major challenge in the region. Air conditioning, although sparsely used, is nonetheless responsible for the surge in electricity demand. The most suitable solution calls for a limit on buildings' thermal needs coupled with the installation of efficient air conditioning equipment. Furthermore, renewable energies could cover almost 2/3 of electricity generation by 2040 and 80% of installed capacity. Already, in 2015, investment in renewable energies overtook investment in gas.

Energy savings are also to be made in the transport and industrial sectors. Representing one third of final energy consumption, the transport sector today is 95% fuelled by petroleum products. Renewing vehicles (especially in the south), applying stricter energy efficiency norms, increasing the share of hybrid and electric vehicles and promoting modal switches for freight and public transport would all contribute to significant energy savings.

Industry, for its part, accounts for 25% of final consumption. Replacing industrial equipment with more efficient models, ensuring regular maintenance, reducing waste and loss and developing methods to produce energy from waste and renewable sources are all avenues to be explored. Implementing these measures could result in a 15% saving in electricity consumption by 2030.

The Mediterranean in figures :

7% of the world's population and 8% of its primary energy consumption

A population of more than 100 million by 2040, of which 90% on the southern side, and a need for 50 million new homes

A 3-fold increase in the demand for energy in 30 years

Renewable energies represent 11% of the Mediterranean region's energy mix (2013)

80% of renewable energies are consumed on the northern side of the Mediterranean.

Special issue : Medener-energy transition with ADEME

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Tuesday, July 19th 2016

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Tuesday, July 19th 2016 - 18:11 Natural gas – An ally in energy transition